Tool 03 · Drawdown
Will your money last?
Once you stop earning, the question flips: not how fast it grows, but how long it survives. Set your pot, your spending and the returns you expect, and see the age the well runs dry.
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Your spending rises by this each year.
Pro features. Add other income, stress-test for bad markets, see a safe spend level, and export.
Stress-test the plan
Refine the model
Pension, rental or part-time income that offsets your spending.
Shows a good- and bad-market band around your expected return.
Year by year
Compare spending levels
| Yearly spend | Money lasts | Runs dry at |
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Will my money last in retirement?
Once you stop earning, the question flips from growth to survival: how long does your pot last while you draw an income from it? This drawdown calculator starts with your savings, subtracts your yearly spending, grows what’s left at your expected return, and increases your spending by inflation each year — repeating until the money either runs out or outlives you.
The single biggest lever is your withdrawal rate — your yearly spending as a share of the pot. A high rate combined with a low real return is what drains a portfolio early. Pro adds other income (like a pension) and a market stress test so you can see how a bad run of returns changes the outcome.
What surprises most people is how sensitive the outcome is to small changes. Because you’re withdrawing and letting inflation lift your spending every year, a pot that looks comfortable can empty faster than expected once returns disappoint. That’s why this tool models the drawdown year by year rather than using a single rule of thumb — you can watch the balance climb, plateau, and then fall off a cliff, and see exactly which age that happens.
A worked example
€600,000 pot · €40,000 spending · 4% return · 2.5% inflation · from age 60
The first-year withdrawal is about 6.7% of the pot — well above the classic 4% — and the real return is only ~1.5% after inflation. The result: the money lasts roughly 17 years and runs dry around age 77. Drop spending to €30,000, or lift the return, and the same pot can comfortably outlive you. Small dials, very different endings.
Things to keep in mind
- Sequence risk is the silent killer. A bad market in your first retirement years — while you’re selling to fund spending — does lasting damage. The Pro stress test shows how a good vs bad run of returns widens the range of outcomes.
- Flexibility buys safety. Retirees who trim spending in down years (dynamic withdrawals or "guardrails") can sustainably start higher than a fixed 4%.
- Other income changes everything. A state or private pension, rental income or part-time work reduces the amount you draw from the pot — often turning an unsustainable plan into a comfortable one.
- Big one-offs aren’t in the base model. Later-life care, a new roof or helping family can blow a hole in a plan; keep a buffer for them.
Frequently asked questions
How can I make my money last longer?
Four levers: spend less, earn some income (pension, part-time), stay invested for a higher real return, and be flexible in downturns. Even a modest cut to spending has an outsized effect because it lowers your withdrawal rate and leaves more invested to compound.
What about long-term care or big one-off costs?
The base projection assumes steady spending plus inflation. Real retirements have lumpy costs — care in particular. It’s wise to hold a separate buffer or insurance for those rather than assume the pot absorbs them.
What’s a “safe” withdrawal rate?
Around 4% is the common starting point for a ~30-year retirement; 3–3.5% is safer for longer or earlier retirements. The right number depends on your returns, flexibility and how long the money must last.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
It’s the danger that poor returns early in retirement — while you’re also withdrawing — permanently shrink the pot, even if average returns are fine. The Pro stress test shows a good- and bad-market band around your estimate.
Does it include the state pension?
The free version models the pot alone. In Pro you can add “other income” (a state/private pension, rental or part-time work), which reduces the net amount you draw from savings.